MTNN — Telecom Resilience Supports Outlook; Wave 2 Correction Nearing Completion Near 720

MTN Nigeria Communications Plc remains the dominant telecoms operator on the Nigerian Exchange, commanding the largest mobile subscriber base in Africa’s most populous economy and operating a network infrastructure that underpins both consumer and enterprise connectivity across all 36 states. The company has faced significant pressure from naira depreciation since the currency was floated in mid-2023, which inflated dollar-denominated costs including spectrum fees, equipment imports, and foreign debt servicing, compressing margins through 2024 and into 2025. However, the regulatory approval of tariff increases implemented in early 2025 marked a critical turning point, allowing MTNN to begin recovering eroded average revenue per user metrics and restore some pricing power that had been suppressed for over a decade. Data revenue continues to be the primary growth engine, with smartphone penetration rising steadily and 4G network expansion deepening into secondary cities, while the fintech arm MoMo PSB adds a non-voice revenue layer that diversifies the earnings base. The macro backdrop in Nigeria has stabilised modestly in 2026, with headline inflation decelerating from its 2024 peaks and the CBN maintaining a relatively hawkish stance that has lent some support to the naira, reducing the pace of FX-driven cost escalation. At current price levels around 842, the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its 2026 highs above 950, offering a more attractive entry point for investors with a medium-term horizon who are willing to look through residual near-term softness. Dividend visibility remains a consideration as the company works through its balance sheet repair, but the underlying cash generation capacity of the business — anchored by recurring subscription and data revenues — continues to support the investment thesis for patient capital.

Chart Update — 4H and 1 Day

The daily chart presents a well-structured Elliott Wave count in which a five-wave impulse from the January 2024 low at 167.2 completed its Grand Wave (III) peak near 950 in mid-2026, with the market now working through a Wave 2 corrective phase at the higher degree. The correction from the Wave i high is unfolding as an expanded flat, labelled A-B-C, where Wave (b) overshot the Wave 1 high before Wave (c) is projected to extend lower toward the 720 support zone, which aligns with the Wave ii base and a key horizontal level visible on both timeframes. On the zoomed daily chart, price has formed a pattern resembling a double top near the 850–870 area following the (b) bounce, reinforcing the view that the corrective sequence has further to run before completion, with the 720 region representing the logical terminal zone for Wave (c) and the broader Wave 2. Once Wave 2 completes near that support confluence, the structure calls for a resumption of the primary uptrend in Wave 3, targeting levels well above the prior Wave i peak, consistent with the broader channel advance visible on the long-term daily chart dating back to the 2024 base.

MTNN — Telecom Resilience Supports Outlook; Wave 2 Correction Nearing Completion Near 720