NGX:ASI — Nigeria’s Equity Bull Market Pauses at All-Time High; Wave 2 Pullback Underway Before Next Leg Higher

The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index reached a historic peak of 253,544 points in mid-2026, capping a multi-year bull run driven by sustained foreign portfolio inflows, a more stable naira following CBN’s managed float reforms, and robust corporate earnings across banking, consumer goods, and energy sectors. Nigeria’s GDP growth trajectory has held above 3% annualised, supported by recovering oil revenues and a broadening non-oil sector, providing macro tailwinds for equity valuations. Listed banks continue to post strong top-line growth as elevated interest rates expand net interest margins, while the FMCG sector benefits from price-led revenue expansion as consumer inflation gradually moderates from its 2024–2025 peaks. The CBN’s tightening cycle, though weighing on consumer credit, has paradoxically attracted yield-seeking capital into equities as alternatives to fixed income remain constrained by fiscal pressures. Equity market capitalization has grown substantially, and the NGX continues to attract listings from both domestic corporates and pan-African conglomerates seeking naira-denominated capital. The current pullback is consistent with a technically-driven corrective phase rather than a fundamental deterioration, with earnings visibility remaining supportive for the medium-term outlook. Valuation multiples, while elevated relative to historical NGX averages, remain competitive against regional peers on a risk-adjusted basis, particularly for banking and industrial names.

Chart Update — 4H and 1 Day

On the 4-hour chart, the NGX:ASI has completed a five-wave impulse from the April 2026 lows to the Wave 1 high at 254,106, and is now tracing out a corrective ABC structure lower. Wave (iii) of the decline has reached the 423.6% extension target at 229,172, with Wave (v) projected to complete the (a)-leg near the 220,000 area before a Wave (b) bounce lifts price back toward the 244,000–248,000 zone. On the daily chart, the index peaked at Wave 1 of a larger degree impulse at 253,544 and is pulling back into a Wave 2 correction, with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 222,840 and the key support zone between 215,933 and 228,662 defining the expected base. The broader Elliott Wave structure remains firmly bullish, with Wave 2 corrective action viewed as a buying opportunity ahead of a powerful Wave 3 advance that should materially exceed the 253,544 all-time high. Price action on both timeframes confirms the corrective nature of the decline, and a reversal signal within the support zone will be the trigger for the next impulsive advance.

NGX:ASI — Nigeria’s Equity Bull Market Pauses at All-Time High; Wave 2 Pullback Underway Before Next Leg Higher