UPL — Publishing Fundamentals Firm; Wave 2 Base Complete, Wave 3 Advance Underway

University Press Plc operates within Nigeria’s educational publishing sector, a space that remains structurally supported by persistent demand for textbooks, curriculum materials, and state-sanctioned learning resources across primary and secondary school levels. The company benefits from its long-standing relationship with government education agencies and its established distribution network across the federation, giving it a degree of revenue visibility that many peers lack. Nigeria’s ongoing efforts to improve literacy rates and school enrollment, backed by periodic Federal and State Government education budget allocations, continue to underpin order pipelines for core publishers like University Press. Naira volatility has remained a headwind for paper and ink import costs, compressing margins at various points over the past fiscal year, though management has sought to offset this through selective price adjustments and tighter cost control. Earnings performance has reflected these pressures with some unevenness, but the company’s asset-light model and entrenched market position mean that any recovery in government procurement cycles tends to translate relatively quickly into top-line improvement. At current price levels near ₦6.20, valuation remains modest relative to the company’s book value and brand equity built over decades, offering a margin of safety for patient investors. A stabilising naira and anticipated increases in education sector disbursements heading into the next academic cycle represent meaningful near-term catalysts for revenue re-acceleration.

Chart Update — 4H

The intraday 4-hour chart shows a Channel Up — price is trending within a rising parallel channel, consistent with an impulsive wave sequence advancing in an orderly fashion, with the upper channel boundary representing near-term resistance and the lower boundary providing wave support. The broader Elliott Wave count suggests University Press completed a large Wave II correction at prior lows, with Wave I and Wave II clearly defined on the left side of the chart. Within the current advance, a five-wave impulse labelled Wave i concluded near the 7.50 area, followed by a three-wave Wave ii correction — subdividing as an A-B-C flat — which appears to have bottomed in the 4.00–5.10 zone. Price is now positioned at the base of what is counted as Wave 2 within the next higher-degree impulse, with Wave 1 having peaked near the recent swing high around 6.20. The wave structure projects a Wave 3 extension targeting the 10.00–11.00 region, followed by a Wave 4 pullback and a terminal Wave 5 advance toward the 12.50–13.50 area, consistent with the channel projection shown on the chart.

TIP — Nigeria’s Infrastructure Spend Fuels Earnings Recovery; Wave (i)-(ii) Base Locked In

Initiates Plc (NGX: TIP) operates within Nigeria’s construction and infrastructure services sector, a space that has received renewed government attention as capital expenditure allocations in the 2025 and 2026 federal budgets prioritised roads, housing, and public works at levels not seen in over a decade. The Tinubu administration’s continued push to close Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit has translated into a more active contracting environment, benefiting indigenous construction and engineering firms that are competitively positioned to win public and private sector mandates. TIP, trading at approximately ₦31 per share as of late July 2026, remains significantly below its intrinsic value relative to peers given the scale of the opportunity ahead, making the current price level an attractive entry relative to earnings recovery expectations. Revenue visibility has improved as Nigeria’s construction pipeline expands, supported by World Bank and African Development Bank-backed projects flowing through to local contractors. The naira’s partial stabilisation following the managed float reforms has also reduced cost unpredictability on imported materials, helping margins recover from the compression seen in 2023 and early 2024. With inflation gradually moderating and the Central Bank of Nigeria holding rates at elevated but plateaued levels, corporate borrowing costs for project financing are expected to ease into the second half of 2026, further supporting earnings momentum for capital-intensive operators like TIP. The broader NGX construction index has outperformed the All-Share Index on a year-to-date basis, reflecting renewed institutional interest in the sector as a beneficiary of Nigeria’s medium-term development agenda.

Chart Update — 4H and 1 Day

On the 4-hour chart, TIP has completed a complex corrective structure labelled as a double three (w)-(x)-(y) that bottomed near the ₦25.1 zone, which now serves as the confirmed wave ii low within the developing impulsive advance from that base. Price has since initiated wave (1) of the next leg higher, with a brief wave (2) pullback underway before the anticipated wave (3) extension targets the ₦55 area and beyond toward the wave (5) projected high near ₦65. The daily chart provides the broader context, confirming that the entire corrective sequence from the ₦39.3 peak represents wave ii of a larger degree impulse, with wave i having peaked and the market now positioned to advance through waves (i) through (v) of wave iii toward the ₦70-plus region. Both timeframes are consistent in their structure — the intraday channel up from the ₦25.1 low and the daily channel up from the ₦23.2 corrective base both point to a sustained impulsive advance with the lower channel boundary offering wave support on any shallow retest. The alignment across timeframes reinforces conviction that the corrective base is complete and the next impulsive sequence is underway.

TIP — Nigeria’s Infrastructure Spend Fuels Earnings Recovery; Wave (i)-(ii) Base Locked In

HAFR — Kenya Media Ad Spend Recovers; Wave 2 Correction Nearing Completion at Key Retracement Zone

Home Afrika (NSE: HAFR) operates within Kenya’s broadcast and media distribution space, a sector that endured prolonged pressure from subdued advertising budgets during the post-pandemic tightening cycle and Kenya’s domestic fiscal stress of 2024–2025. The broader Kenyan economy has since shown signs of stabilisation, with the Central Bank of Kenya easing its benchmark rate through 2025 as inflation moderated, improving consumer purchasing power and corporate advertising appetite. Media and entertainment companies listed on the NSE have broadly benefited from a recovery in fast-moving consumer goods and telecoms advertising spend, both of which are primary revenue drivers for broadcast-linked entities. HAFR’s valuation at current levels near 1.30 KES reflects a significant discount to its 2025 highs near 1.92 KES, raising the question of whether the market has already priced in the operational headwinds the company faced. Revenue visibility is expected to improve into H2 2026 as digital content distribution gains traction and subscription-based income streams provide a more predictable earnings base. The macro backdrop — a weakening but stabilising Kenyan shilling and improving consumer confidence — further supports a cautiously constructive fundamental outlook for the name heading into the second half of the year.

Chart Update — Daily and 1 Day

On the 12-hour chart, HAFR has been declining within a channel down structure from the Wave 1 high of 1.92 KES, tracing out a clear three-wave A-B-C corrective sequence that constitutes Wave 2 of the broader advance. The C-wave target zone sits near 0.97 KES, defined by the 61.8% retracement of Wave 1, a classical Fibonacci level where Wave 2 corrections frequently find exhaustion. Price is currently pressing into the lower boundary of this corrective channel, with the highlighted blue box marking the anticipated Wave 2 completion zone between approximately 0.97 and 1.05 KES. On the daily chart, the broader structure confirms that HAFR completed a powerful impulsive advance from the Wave II low, with Wave (1) and (2) sub-waves clearly visible before the extended rally to the Wave 1 high; the current pullback is a higher-degree Wave 2 correction retesting the 61.8% retracement near 1.00 KES. A reversal from within the blue box would confirm Wave 2 completion and set the stage for a Wave 3 advance that would be expected to significantly exceed the prior Wave 1 high of 1.92 KES. The first confirmation signal would be a reclaim of the descending channel’s upper boundary on the 12-hour timeframe, followed by a breakout above the B-wave high.

HAFR — Kenya Media Ad Spend Recovers; Wave 2 Correction Nearing Completion at Key Retracement Zone

HFCK — Mortgage Demand Recovers as Wave 3 Advance Takes Shape

HF Group (HFCK) operates as Kenya’s only dedicated mortgage finance institution, giving it a structurally unique position within the Nairobi Securities Exchange financial sector. Kenya’s housing deficit, estimated at over two million units and widening annually, provides a durable long-term demand backdrop that few lenders can directly exploit the way HFCK can. The Central Bank of Kenya’s gradual monetary easing cycle, which has seen the benchmark rate trimmed from its 2024 highs, is beginning to ease the cost-of-credit environment that had weighed heavily on mortgage uptake across the market. Lower lending rates directly improve HFCK’s loan origination volumes and reduce non-performing loan pressure on the existing book, both of which are critical earnings drivers for the institution. The government’s Affordable Housing Programme continues to accelerate, with HFCK positioned as a natural financing partner for qualifying developers and off-takers seeking structured mortgage products. Net interest margins had been under compression during the high-rate environment, but the improving rate cycle should allow the bank to rebuild spreads as it reprices new disbursements. Valuation remains undemanding relative to book value, and any earnings upgrade cycle driven by volume recovery and margin expansion could attract renewed institutional interest in a stock that has historically been thinly followed.

Chart Update — Daily and 1 Day

On the 16-hour chart, HFCK has completed a clear five-wave impulse from the 2023 lows into the Wave 1 peak near the 16.00 level, with the subsequent decline now interpreted as a Wave 2 correction pulling back in a corrective zigzag structure toward the 13.50–14.00 area. The 4-day chart confirms the broader degree count, with a larger cycle Wave I and Wave II base already established at multi-year lows, and the current advance forming Wave III of a higher-degree impulsive sequence. Wave 2 at the current degree is expected to find support well above the prior Wave 1 origin, consistent with Elliott Wave rules, and the corrective structure appears to be maturing rather than deepening. Once Wave 2 completes, the projected Wave 3 extension targets the 18.00 area and potentially beyond, as third waves within this sector tend to carry the most momentum and volume expansion. The near-term risk is a slightly deeper Wave 2 retracement toward 13.20, but the bullish count remains intact provided price does not close below the Wave 1 high on the larger degree chart.

HFCK — Mortgage Demand Recovers as Wave 3 Advance Takes Shape

NSLTECH — Digital Security Revenues Resilient; Wave C Ending Diagonal Points to Major Base

Secure Electronic Technology Plc (NSLTECH) operates at the intersection of Nigeria’s expanding digital infrastructure and the country’s growing emphasis on secure identity, payment, and document verification systems — a segment that continues to attract both government patronage and private-sector adoption. The company’s core business in smart card manufacturing, e-passport production, and secure credential issuance places it firmly within a policy-driven demand cycle that is relatively insulated from the kind of consumer discretionary pressure weighing on other NGX-listed small caps. Nigeria’s ongoing push to deepen financial inclusion, modernise national identity systems, and comply with international biometric standards provides a durable revenue backdrop for NSLTECH’s order book. Margins have come under pressure from naira depreciation, which has elevated the cost of imported raw materials and specialised components central to secure document production, yet management has demonstrated an ability to pass a portion of these input cost increases through contract renegotiations with institutional clients. Earnings visibility for the remainder of 2026 is supported by multi-year government contracts, which provide a degree of revenue predictability uncommon among peers at this market capitalisation. At current price levels near ₦0.89, the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its replacement cost and to comparable identity-technology businesses in frontier markets, suggesting the market has yet to re-rate the company for its structural positioning. The broader NGX technology and services complex has seen selective accumulation in 2026 as institutional investors look for naira-denominated assets with hard-currency-linked revenue characteristics, and NSLTECH’s government contract base provides partial exposure to that theme.

Chart Update — 4H

The 4-hour chart reveals a well-structured Elliott Wave sequence unfolding within a declining channel that traces a textbook five-wave ending diagonal for Wave C of a larger ABC correction originating from the highs above ₦1.40. Waves (1) through (4) have printed with clear alternation — Wave (2) retracing sharply before Wave (3) pushed to new lows near the ₦0.70 region, and Wave (4) delivering a corrective bounce toward ₦0.80 — setting the stage for a terminal Wave (5) thrust into the ₦0.65–0.70 target zone that would complete Wave C and the broader corrective sequence. The convergence of the channel’s lower boundary with the 0.77 horizontal reference zone and the projected Wave (5) terminus creates a confluence support cluster that the wave structure suggests should mark the exhaustion of selling pressure. Once Wave (5) and the ending diagonal complete, the expectation is for a sharp and impulsive reversal — consistent with how ending diagonals typically resolve — with price targeting a return toward the ₦1.00–1.20 range in the initial recovery impulse. Current price at ₦0.89 sits within the Wave (4)–(5) transition zone, meaning the final downside leg may still be developing, and patience for confirmation of the Wave C low is warranted before positioning for the anticipated bullish reversal.

ELLAHLAKES — Agro-Processing Sector Tailwinds Build; Wave II Correction Nearing Terminal Low

Ella Lakes Plc operates within Nigeria’s agro-processing and lakes-region value chain, a sector that has gained renewed policy attention as the federal government pushes food security initiatives and inland waterway commercialisation under its agricultural transformation agenda. The company’s revenue base, while modest in scale relative to tier-one NGX consumer names, is closely tied to commodity throughput volumes and regional processing activity — both of which have shown early signs of recovery following the naira stabilisation efforts that began in late 2025. Nigeria’s inflation trajectory, which had compressed consumer purchasing power and squeezed margins across agro-linked businesses through much of 2024 and early 2025, has begun easing, providing some relief to input cost pressures that previously weighed on Ella Lakes’ operational efficiency. At current price levels near ₦9.00, the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its 2026 intraday highs above ₦20, implying a valuation reset that may already be pricing in near-worst-case earnings scenarios. The broader NGX consumer and agro space has seen selective re-rating as institutional flows return to value names with identifiable recovery catalysts. Any positive earnings surprise in the company’s next filing — particularly if operating margins show recovery — could serve as a meaningful re-rating trigger for a stock that has already endured a prolonged and deep corrective phase. Macro tailwinds from improved agricultural financing access and CBN support for food-sector SMEs also form part of the medium-term fundamental backdrop that underpins longer-term investor interest in names like Ella Lakes.

Chart Update — 4H

The daily chart for Ella Lakes Plc presents a well-structured Elliott Wave sequence in which a five-wave impulse from the lows — labelled Wave I — completed at the ₦20-plus region, with sub-waves (1) through (5) clearly identifiable within that advance. Following the Wave I peak, price has traced out a corrective Wave II decline composed of an A-B-C zigzag structure, with the C-wave now subdividing into its own five-wave decline — currently in the terminal (5) of C zone, framed by the highlighted target box between approximately ₦5.30 and ₦7.60. The (3) of C low has printed and price appears to be compressing into the (5) of C terminal, which represents the anticipated completion zone for the entire Wave II correction. Once Wave II finds its low within this target box, the expectation is for a significant Wave III advance to begin, which under Elliott Wave theory typically becomes the most powerful and extended leg of the broader impulsive sequence. Traders should watch for reversal confirmation signals within the ₦5.30–₦7.60 zone before positioning for the next major upside phase.

JAPAULGOLD — Gold Sector Tailwinds Support Recovery Case; Wave IV Base Forming Near 2.44

Japaul Gold & Ventures Plc operates within Nigeria’s nascent but increasingly strategic solid minerals sector, a space that has drawn renewed policy attention from the federal government as part of its diversification push away from oil dependence. Global gold prices have remained elevated through 2025 and into mid-2026, providing a constructive macro backdrop for gold-linked equities listed on the Nigerian Exchange. For a company at Japaul Gold’s stage of development, rising benchmark gold prices translate directly into improved project economics and stronger investor appetite for exploration-stage assets. The company has faced historical challenges around operational scale and financing, but sector-wide interest in Nigeria’s untapped mineral wealth continues to attract institutional attention to names with legitimate gold exposure. Regulatory reforms under the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Resources Act and complementary solid minerals frameworks have begun to streamline licensing processes, reducing one of the key friction points for junior miners. On the NGX, Japaul Gold remains a speculative but sentiment-driven play, with price action historically amplified by global commodity moves. Valuation at current levels near 3.35 kobo reflects the market pricing in both operational risk and the optionality embedded in an eventual production ramp. Any credible operational update or partnership announcement would likely serve as a significant re-rating catalyst given the thin float and retail-dominated investor base.

Chart Update — 4H

The 12-hour chart presents a well-defined Elliott Wave structure unfolding within a rising parallel channel that has been intact since the Wave (II) low. Price completed a five-wave impulse into the Wave (III) high, followed by a corrective ABC flat into Wave (IV), with the C-wave low anchored near the 2.44 support zone marked by the highlighted consolidation box. Within that correction, a smaller five-wave sequence appears to have completed wave C of (IV), setting the stage for a Wave (V) advance targeting the 5.11 area and potentially the upper channel boundary near 5.50. The current price of 3.35 sits just above the Wave (IV) base, and a sustained hold above the 2.44 level is critical to maintaining the bullish count. Momentum confirmation above the 3.50–4.00 zone would strengthen conviction that Wave (V) is underway and that the corrective sequence has fully completed.

DANGSUGAR — Sugar Deficit Tailwinds Firm Up Fundamentals; Wave (4) Base Maturing Before Resumption

Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc remains one of the most strategically positioned consumer staples names on the Nigerian Exchange, operating as the dominant large-scale sugar refiner in a country that continues to run a structural supply deficit against rising domestic consumption. Nigeria’s sugar demand, driven by population growth and an expanding food and beverage manufacturing base, consistently outpaces local production, keeping import-dependent refiners like Dangote Sugar in a privileged pricing position. The company’s backward integration programme — the Savannah Sugar Estate in Taraba State — remains a long-term earnings catalyst, as progress toward local sugarcane cultivation would materially reduce raw sugar import costs and expand refining margins over the coming years. Naira depreciation has been a double-edged sword: it inflates raw material import costs in the near term, but the pass-through to retail sugar prices has largely been achieved, supporting revenue growth in naira terms. Volumes have remained resilient through 2025 and into 2026 as the company benefits from its distribution network reach across Northern and Southern Nigeria. Valuation at current levels near ₦72 per share sits at a meaningful discount to the stock’s fundamental replacement value and to its 2024 earnings peak near the ₦89.50 range, offering an asymmetric setup for medium-term holders. The macro backdrop — gradual FX stabilisation under CBN’s managed float, subsidy removal dividend flowing into broader Nigerian manufacturing, and sustained food price inflation — continues to support the case for consumer staples with pricing power. Any acceleration in the Savannah backward integration milestones or an improvement in import duty structures for raw sugar would serve as incremental earnings catalysts that the current price does not fully reflect.

Chart Update — 4H and 1 Day

On the daily chart, DANGSUGAR has completed a clear five-wave impulse from the wave (ii) low, with wave (3) marking the peak near ₦95 and wave 5 completing the sequence slightly above ₦90 before a corrective pullback began. Price is now tracing out wave (4) in an ABC structure — wave A bottomed near ₦60, wave B bounced toward ₦80, and wave C has since declined to complete near the current ₦72 area, sitting just above the key wave (1) high which now serves as wave (4) support. The four-day chart broadens the context considerably, framing the entire impulse from wave ii as a sub-wave within a much larger degree advance, with wave (3) at the higher degree still ahead — projected toward the ₦140–₦150 zone based on standard Fibonacci extensions of the prior wave sequence. Both timeframes are consistent in their message: wave (4) is in a mature or terminal position, and the next directional move of substance is a wave (5) advance on the daily and a wave (3) continuation on the four-day degree. A confirmed reversal from current levels, ideally with a daily close above ₦80, would be the signal that wave (5) is underway. Momentum compression at the wave C low supports the case that selling pressure is exhausting near this structural inflection zone.

DANGSUGAR — Sugar Deficit Tailwinds Firm Up Fundamentals; Wave (4) Base Maturing Before Resumption

UACN — Diversified Conglomerate Regains Footing; Wave IV Correction Underway Before Final Surge

UAC of Nigeria Plc remains one of the Nigerian Exchange’s most storied diversified conglomerates, with operations spanning food and beverages, real estate, logistics, and animal nutrition through its portfolio of subsidiaries including UACN Property Development Company and Grand Cereals. The group has faced persistent margin pressure from Nigeria’s elevated inflation environment and naira depreciation, which have squeezed input costs across its manufacturing and agribusiness segments, yet its diversified structure provides a natural hedge that pure-play peers cannot match. Revenue resilience has been underpinned by the food and nutrition division, where volume demand remains structurally supported by Nigeria’s growing population and urbanisation trends despite consumer purchasing power erosion. Management’s ongoing rationalisation of non-core assets and focus on higher-margin product lines has begun to reflect in improved operating metrics, with the market watching closely for evidence of sustained earnings recovery through H1 2026. The broader Nigerian equity environment has also turned more constructive, with the NGX All-Share Index drawing renewed interest from domestic institutional investors rebalancing into consumer and industrial names following the rate cycle peak. UACN’s relatively modest valuation multiples compared to sector peers suggest meaningful re-rating potential should earnings visibility improve materially in the second half of 2026. The real estate arm, UPDC, adds a further dimension of value that the market has yet to fully price in, particularly as commercial property demand in Lagos recovers. Collectively, these catalysts position UACN as a compelling recovery play within Nigeria’s diversified industrials space.

Chart Update — 4H

The daily chart reveals a powerful multi-wave advance from the long-term Wave 1 base near the 20s, with a completed five-wave impulse sequence carrying price from Wave II lows through a sharp Wave III extension that peaked around the 203–210 zone, where sub-wave iii measured approximately 686 times sub-wave i. Price is now consolidating within a Wave IV corrective structure, which on the alternate count is unfolding as a triangle or zigzag pattern — a series of overlapping swings bounded between roughly 160 and 200 — consistent with the typical time-consuming consolidation seen after extended third waves. The measured target for Wave 3 at the higher-degree count sits near 162.7, providing a confluence support reference that aligns with the lower boundary of the current corrective range. Once Wave IV completes and Wave V initiates, the projection targets a fresh leg toward the 220–240 area, continuing the broader impulsive sequence. Traders should monitor for a decisive directional break out of the triangle compression as the trigger for Wave V confirmation.

WEMABANK — ALAT-Driven Deposit Growth Supports Valuation; Wave 2 Corrective Base Now Complete

Wema Bank remains one of Nigeria’s most compelling mid-tier banking stories, anchored by ALAT — the country’s first fully digital bank — which continues to drive low-cost deposit mobilisation and expand the bank’s retail footprint well beyond its traditional South-West stronghold. Nigeria’s ongoing monetary tightening cycle, while pressuring borrowing costs, has simultaneously lifted net interest margins across the sector, and Wema has been a quiet beneficiary given its improving loan-to-deposit ratio and growing non-interest income streams. The CBN’s sustained effort to deepen financial inclusion plays directly into Wema’s digital-first strategy, as unbanked and underbanked Nigerians increasingly onboard through mobile-native platforms rather than branch networks. Recent earnings releases have reflected stronger fee income, improved asset quality metrics, and expanding customer acquisition numbers on ALAT, all of which point to a business model gaining structural leverage. Naira stabilisation — relative to the extreme volatility of 2023 and early 2024 — has also reduced foreign-exchange-driven provisioning pressure, allowing the bank’s underlying earnings power to reassert itself more clearly in reported numbers. With the stock trading well off its recent peak, current valuations offer a more attractive entry relative to forward earnings and book value than was available six months ago. The bank’s capital adequacy remains within regulatory comfort zones, and management has signalled appetite for continued digital investment rather than aggressive dividend distribution, which is consistent with a growth-phase banking institution in an underpenetrated market.

Chart Update — 4H and 1 Day

On the 4-hour chart, WEMABANK completed a five-wave impulsive advance from the 17.1 low to the 35.8 peak, establishing a clear Wave 1 high at the larger degree. Price has since traced out a three-wave ABC corrective structure — Wave 2 — with the (c) leg now appearing to find exhaustion near the 25.0 area, which also aligns with prior Wave i support, a textbook retracement zone. The daily chart situates this correction within a much larger impulsive sequence that originated from the 10.8 base, with the current Wave 2 pullback representing a normal and healthy reset before the dominant trend reasserts. If the corrective low holds, Wave 3 is projected to extend toward the 47.5 region — consistent with a 261.8% extension of Wave 1 — representing significant upside from current levels. Both timeframes align in suggesting the corrective phase is either complete or very near completion, with the path of least resistance pointing higher into mid-to-late 2026.

WEMABANK — ALAT-Driven Deposit Growth Supports Valuation; Wave 2 Corrective Base Now Complete

RTBRISCOE — Auto Sector Resilience Supports Outlook; Wave ii Base Forming Near 7.2

RT Briscoe Plc remains one of Nigeria’s most recognised names in automobile distribution and engineering services, with a franchise portfolio that continues to attract institutional and retail interest despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company’s operations are directly exposed to foreign exchange dynamics given the import-dependent nature of vehicle and spare-parts procurement, and the sustained naira depreciation cycle since 2023 has compressed margins and elevated cost of sales considerably. However, demand for commercial and passenger vehicles in Nigeria has not collapsed — fleet replacement cycles, government procurement, and private-sector logistics expansion continue to underpin baseline revenue. RT Briscoe’s ability to pass through cost increases to end consumers has been tested, but its brand equity and established dealer network provide a degree of pricing resilience that smaller competitors lack. On the valuation front, the stock has de-rated sharply from its 2025 highs above 19, making current price levels arguably reflective of much of the FX and margin risk already priced in. A stabilisation of the naira and any improvement in consumer credit availability would serve as meaningful re-rating catalysts for the stock. Investors monitoring the NGX consumer discretionary space will find RT Briscoe at a historically compressed valuation range, with the risk-reward beginning to skew more favourably for patient capital.

Chart Update — 4H

The 1-hour chart for RT Briscoe shows price completing what appears to be a five-wave impulse decline from the Wave B peak at 16.5, with the sequence labelled (1) through (5) now approaching a terminal low in the 7.2 area, marking the end of Wave C and the broader Wave ii correction. The shaded zone between approximately 7.2 and 8.8 defines the projected completion range for this corrective structure, with Wave (5) of C currently pressing toward the lower boundary. Once Wave ii is confirmed complete, the Elliott Wave framework anticipates the commencement of Wave iii — typically the most powerful and extended wave in a five-wave impulse — targeting a significant recovery above the 13.4 current price level. A reclaim of the 8.8 area on a closing basis would be the initial signal that selling exhaustion has set in and that the corrective phase is ending. The projected Wave iii advance points toward the 14.0+ region and potentially beyond, contingent on volume confirmation and a sustained base forming in the Wave ii zone.

CILEASING — Leasing Sector Fundamentals Stabilise; Wave 2 Correction Nearing Completion

C & I Leasing Plc remains one of Nigeria’s most established asset leasing and outsourcing companies, with a diversified revenue base spanning marine, auto, and manpower outsourcing services. The business has faced persistent pressure from Nigeria’s elevated interest rate environment, which has raised the cost of financing its asset-heavy balance sheet and compressed net margins over recent periods. However, structural demand for fleet and equipment leasing across the oil and gas, FMCG, and construction sectors continues to provide a stable revenue pipeline. The naira’s partial stabilisation following CBN interventions has eased some foreign-currency-denominated liability stress, particularly relevant given CILEASING’s exposure to USD-priced assets. On the earnings front, the company has been working to restructure debt obligations and rationalise its fleet composition, which should improve asset utilisation rates going forward. Valuation remains undemanding relative to book value, and any improvement in Nigeria’s credit cycle or a rate easing pivot from the CBN would act as a meaningful re-rating catalyst. The broader Nigerian leasing sector is also expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure spending and increasing corporate outsourcing of non-core logistics functions. With the stock trading near multi-year lows around ₦5.80, long-term risk-reward begins to look increasingly asymmetric for patient investors.

Chart Update — 4H

The daily chart for CILEASING reflects a prolonged corrective structure from the Wave (1) peak at ₦9.50, with price completing a W-X-Y double zigzag formation. The X wave retraced to ₦8.79 before rolling over into the Y leg, which is now carving out a five-wave impulse decline labelled (i) through (v). Waves (i), (ii), (iii), and (iv) appear complete, with the converging channel suggesting Wave (v) of C of Y — labelled as Wave (2) — is the final leg lower before a meaningful reversal. The structure projects a completion zone toward the ₦3.50–₦4.00 area, which aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel. A confirmed reversal from that zone would signal the start of Wave (3) to the upside.

NEIMETH — Pharma Sector Tailwinds Build as Wave ii Base Forms Near Key Floor

Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals remains one of Nigeria’s most closely watched mid-cap healthcare names, operating at the intersection of rising domestic drug demand and persistent foreign-exchange pressure that has challenged import-dependent manufacturers across the sector. The company’s product portfolio spans ethical pharmaceuticals, consumer health, and veterinary lines, giving it diversified revenue exposure that partially insulates it from single-segment downturns. Nigeria’s healthcare spending trajectory remains structurally positive, underpinned by population growth, expanding insurance penetration under the National Health Insurance Authority framework, and government commitments to local pharmaceutical production under the Renewed Hope Agenda. Neimeth has historically benefited from periods of naira stabilisation, as a more predictable FX environment reduces raw material and active pharmaceutical ingredient costs sourced in hard currency. Recent quarters have seen margin compression across Nigerian pharma names due to elevated energy costs and logistics inflation, but early signs of moderation in diesel prices and improved port throughput at Apapa offer some relief heading into the second half of 2026. The stock’s current price level near 10 represents a meaningful discount to the highs above 14 recorded earlier in the year, which may attract value-oriented domestic institutional interest if earnings visibility improves in the upcoming half-year results. Analysts monitoring the NGX healthcare index have noted that Neimeth’s relatively low free-float and thin liquidity can amplify price moves in both directions, making fundamental re-rating catalysts — such as a strong H1 revenue print or a new product registration — particularly impactful for the share price.

Chart Update — 4H

The 1-hour chart for NEIMETH on the NGX shows price has completed a corrective ABC structure from the highs near 14.8, with wave A bottoming around 8.0 and wave B retracing sharply to 12.1 before wave C extended to close out the broader wave ii correction near the 8.5 support zone. From that low, the structure now favours the early development of a five-wave impulsive sequence higher, with wave (1) and wave (2) of the new bullish leg already tentatively in place around the 10.0–9.1 area. The projected path calls for wave (3) to push toward the 12.0 region, followed by a wave (4) pullback and a final wave (5) extension targeting the 13.5–14.0 area to complete blue wave i. A subsequent wave ii retracement back toward the 8.5 level would then set the stage for a larger degree advance, consistent with the broader bullish channel drawn across the chart. Price must hold above the C-wave low near 8.0 to keep this constructive count valid.

ETI — Pan-African Banking Giant Launches Impulsive Wave 3 Toward 128.4

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated remains the most geographically diversified banking franchise on the Nigerian Exchange, operating across 35 African countries and serving as a critical financial infrastructure backbone for sub-Saharan trade and remittance flows. The group has benefited materially from naira stabilisation and improved dollar liquidity on the NGX, which directly boosts the naira-denominated value of its multi-currency earnings base. In its most recent reporting period, ETI delivered strong net interest income growth driven by elevated interest rate environments across its Francophone West African and Anglophone markets, with Nigeria remaining a top-tier contributor to group profitability. Fee and commission income has held up well as transaction volumes recover post-pandemic dislocations, and the bank’s digital banking platform continues to deepen customer acquisition across the continent. Cost-to-income ratios have been under management focus, with efficiency gains recorded in several subsidiaries following a restructuring of the holding company’s operational footprint. Capital adequacy remains above regulatory thresholds across key operating jurisdictions, and the stock’s current price-to-book multiple remains attractive relative to comparable pan-African financial institutions. The macro backdrop — including IMF-supported fiscal reforms in several ETI markets and improving current account positions — continues to support credit demand and fee-generating activity. With the stock trading at 95.2 as of June 20, 2026, institutional interest is building as wave structure signals the early stages of a significant impulsive advance.

Chart Update — 4H and 1 Day

On the 16-hour chart, ETI is advancing within a well-defined Channel Up, with price having completed a five-wave impulse from the 12.0 base through a clearly labelled large degree Wave 1 at 51.9, followed by a Wave 2 correction to 30.7, and now pressing higher in what is counted as the early stages of large degree Wave 3. The internal sub-waves confirm the bullish bias: a minor (1)-(2) sequence has printed above the 30.7 low, and price has already begun the advance that projects Wave 3 to 261.8% of Wave 1, targeting approximately 128.4. On the daily chart, price is pressing into a descending trendline resistance connecting prior swing highs, a level that has capped multiple upside attempts and whose decisive breach is required to confirm the full impulsive Wave 3 extension toward 128.4 and ultimately the Wave iii target near 147. The daily count also projects a subsequent Wave 5 advance after a corrective Wave 4 pullback, with the macro Wave iii at the higher degree targeting 686 times Wave 1, implying a long-duration bull market structure remains intact. A clean breakout above current trendline resistance on expanding volume would serve as the primary confirmation signal for the next leg of the advance. Failure to breach resistance would suggest a deeper Wave 4 consolidation remains in progress before the final extension materialises.

ETI — Pan-African Banking Giant Launches Impulsive Wave 3 Toward 128.4

UCAP — Wave 2 Correction Tightening; Wave 3 Advance Loading Above 17.5

United Capital Plc remains one of Nigeria’s most diversified investment banking and asset management franchises, with revenues spanning securities trading, trust services, fund management, and structured finance. The firm has benefited from elevated fixed-income yields on the NGX as the CBN’s hawkish monetary stance kept short-term rates high, supporting fee income from money market and bond products. However, equity market volatility in H1 2026 has weighed on advisory and brokerage revenues, creating a mixed earnings backdrop heading into mid-year results. Asset under management growth remains a structural positive, with retail investor participation in Nigerian capital markets continuing to deepen. The naira’s relative stabilisation in 2026 has reduced FX translation losses that had previously distorted bottom-line figures, a meaningful tailwind for the group. Valuation remains undemanding relative to peers given the quality of the franchise, and any earnings beat in the upcoming H1 disclosure could serve as a fresh catalyst. The broader NGX financial services sector continues to attract domestic institutional inflows as pension funds rebalance toward equities following the 2025 regulatory reforms. Near-term sentiment is cautious but the medium-term investment case for UCAP hinges on the anticipated resumption of the primary impulse wave sequence.

Chart Update — 4H and 1 Day

In our last update on April 13, wave iv was completing a contracting triangle near 16.0 on the daily chart, with the green arrow projecting a wave 5 advance toward the mid-twenties. The current daily chart confirms that wave iv concluded its expanded flat-triangle structure at the (e) low and price has since launched wave 1 of the new advance, tagging 20.7 before pulling back into what is now labelled wave 2. Wave 2 is retracing into the 16.7–17.5 support box, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement sitting at 15.7 as the deeper invalidation boundary. On the 4-hour chart, a small five-wave impulse from the (e) low completed wave 1, followed by an a-b-c zigzag decline into the shaded support zone, consistent with a standard wave 2 retracement. A sustained reclaim of 17.5 on a closing basis would confirm wave 2 is complete and open the path toward wave 3 targets well above 24.0. Both timeframes continue to respect the rising parallel channel structure that has guided price since the 2024 lows.

UCAP — Wave 2 Correction Tightening; Wave 3 Advance Loading Above 17.5

INTENEGINS — Corrective Wave ii Bottoming at 4.3; Wave iii Surge Targets 9.1 and Beyond

International Energy Insurance Plc remains one of the most strategically positioned underwriters on the Nigerian Exchange, with its core book tied directly to upstream and midstream oil and gas activity — a sector that continues to attract fresh capital inflows as Nigeria pushes to restore crude output toward 1.8 million barrels per day. The company’s premium income has benefited from rising insurable values across offshore platforms and pipelines, with energy insurance rates firming globally following a string of high-profile marine and energy losses in 2024 and 2025. Nigeria’s insurance sector penetration remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, which structurally supports long-term premium growth for specialised underwriters such as INTENEGINS that are not competing in the saturated retail segment. Regulatory tailwinds from NAICOM’s recapitalisation drive have also strengthened balance sheets across the sector, reducing counterparty risk and improving reinsurance treaty terms for compliant operators. The stock’s valuation remains undemanding relative to book value, and with the naira showing some measure of stability following CBN’s tightening cycle, foreign reinsurance obligations have become more predictable. Earnings visibility has improved materially entering the second half of 2026, and any upside surprise in H1 results could serve as a near-term catalyst to accelerate the technical breakout already developing on the chart.

Chart Update — 4H and 1 Day

The daily chart for INTENEGINS presents a well-structured Elliott Wave sequence in which a powerful five-wave impulse completed wave i at the 9.1 level, launching from sub-1.0 lows and channelling steeply higher within a rising parallel structure. Price has since entered a corrective wave ii pullback, unfolding as an a-b-c zigzag that is now compressing into a terminal wedge-like formation with support confluencing near the 4.3 level — precisely at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave i, a textbook wave ii reversal zone. The corrective structure shows internal waves (a) and (b) already complete, with wave (c) grinding toward the lower boundary of the rising channel, suggesting exhaustion of selling pressure is imminent. Once wave ii confirms its low at or above 4.3, the Elliott Wave count projects a wave iii advance that should comfortably surpass the 9.1 wave i peak, with an extended target range opening toward the 12–16 zone as mapped in the alternate count showing sub-waves (i) through (v) developing within the broader third wave. A daily close back above 6.9 would be an early confirmation that wave ii is complete and wave iii is underway.

INTENEGINS — Corrective Wave ii Bottoming at 4.3; Wave iii Surge Targets 9.1 and Beyond

KQ — Kenya Airways Navigates Debt Restructuring; Wave C Correction Targets 4.70 Before Major III Resumes

Kenya Airways remains one of East Africa’s most closely watched turnaround stories, operating under a government-backed restructuring framework that has kept the carrier airborne despite years of accumulated losses. Passenger load factors have recovered meaningfully post-pandemic, supported by rising intra-African travel demand and the reopening of key long-haul routes to Europe and Asia. Revenue has climbed on the back of improved yield management and ancillary income streams, yet the airline’s debt burden — much of it owed to the Kenyan government and aircraft lessors — continues to suppress net profitability. The macro backdrop is broadly supportive: Kenya’s GDP growth trajectory remains intact, Nairobi is consolidating its position as a regional aviation hub, and the government has shown reluctance to allow a full collapse of the national carrier. However, currency pressure on the Kenyan shilling inflates dollar-denominated obligations, squeezing margins at the operating level. Valuations remain speculative given negative book equity, meaning price action is driven largely by sentiment around restructuring milestones and traffic data rather than conventional earnings multiples. The recent pullback from the KES 9.20 peak reflects profit-taking after a powerful impulsive rally rather than any fundamental deterioration, and the corrective structure now unfolding is well within the bounds of a healthy Elliott Wave retracement before the next leg higher.

Chart Update — Daily and 1 Day

On the daily chart, Kenya Airways printed a textbook five-wave impulse from the Wave II low at KES 1.60 all the way to the Wave (v) peak near KES 9.20, completing a large-degree Wave I advance within a rising parallel channel. Price has since entered a corrective Wave II pullback, with the current decline structured as an A-B-C zigzag: Wave A found support near KES 5.60, Wave B retraced to KES 6.20, and Wave C is now in progress targeting the KES 4.70–4.10 confluence zone where c equals 100% of a and the y-wave equals 100% of w. On the 4-hour chart, the corrective sequence is carving out a declining channel with a completed sub-wave (1)-(2) and an active (3)-(4)-(5) structure pointing toward the KES 4.50–4.20 demand zone before exhaustion. A bullish reversal out of that support box, confirmed by a break above the upper boundary of the 4-hour falling channel near KES 5.60, would signal Wave C completion and open the path for a powerful Wave III advance targeting KES 8.00 and beyond.

KQ — Kenya Airways Navigates Debt Restructuring; Wave C Correction Targets 4.70 Before Major III Resumes

MERGROWTH — Nigerian Growth ETF Tests Key Retracement as Wave ii Correction Deepens Toward Launchpad

The Meristem Growth Exchange Traded Fund (NGX: MERGROWTH) tracks a basket of high-growth Nigerian equities, offering retail and institutional investors passive exposure to the country’s most dynamic listed companies. The fund’s net asset value has come under pressure in the first half of 2026, reflecting broader NGX equity market weakness driven by persistent naira volatility, elevated domestic borrowing costs, and a cautious consumer spending environment. Nigeria’s headline inflation, while beginning to moderate from its 2025 peaks, continues to erode real returns on equity instruments, keeping risk appetite subdued among local participants. Foreign portfolio inflows into Nigerian equities have remained inconsistent, with global risk-off sentiment and dollar strength periodically disrupting carry-driven capital allocations into frontier markets. Despite near-term headwinds, the structural case for Nigerian growth equities remains intact: demographic tailwinds, ongoing financial inclusion efforts, and a gradually stabilising FX regime under the CBN’s managed float all support a medium-term re-rating. The ETF’s underlying holdings span consumer discretionary, financials, and technology-adjacent sectors — areas expected to benefit disproportionately as purchasing power recovers. Current price levels near 123.5 represent a significant discount to the fund’s 2025 highs above 300, and the compression in valuation multiples across the basket may attract contrarian accumulation if macro conditions stabilise. Catalysts to watch include the CBN’s next rate decision, Q2 corporate earnings from top NGX constituents, and any further naira liberalisation signals from the fiscal authorities.

Chart Update — 4H and 1 Day

On the 2-hour chart, MERGROWTH has completed a five-wave impulsive decline from the wave (i) high near 165.0, carving out wave (ii) of the emerging bullish sequence with price now compressing into a Fibonacci retracement zone between the 61.8% level at 117.3 and the 88.7% level at 95.2 — the blue box support zone. The current price of 123.5 sits just above the 61.8% retracement, suggesting wave (ii) may be approaching its terminal low, though a wick toward the 88.7% zone at 95.2 cannot be ruled out before buyers reassert control. On the daily chart, the broader structure shows a completed major corrective sequence labelled II, with the origin line holding near 27.6 and price having bottomed in the wave (C)-(5) region around 98.6 — from which the current wave I impulse appears to be launching. The projected path shows a multi-wave advance unfolding across 2026: wave i targeting approximately 340, followed by a wave ii pullback, before wave iii and a terminal wave v push toward the 544 and potentially 800 resistance zones. Confirmation of the bullish scenario requires a decisive break above 165.0 on the 2-hour timeframe, which would signal that wave (ii) is complete and wave (iii) of the larger wave I advance is underway.

MERGROWTH — Nigerian Growth ETF Tests Key Retracement as Wave ii Correction Deepens Toward Launchpad