Bottom Line: Lower for wave 2

5/12/26 10:09 EST (Last Price 340):

We adjusted the count to suggest that wave iii is still unfolding, whilst trading above 200, the wave 4 extreme, we are anticipating to complete wave iii somewhat above the 366 region.

📊 International Breweries Plc (NGX: INTBREW) — Latest Info

✅ Strengths

  • Revenue climbed 26.6% year-on-year to ₦619 billion in FY 2025, while the company swung from a ₦113.6 billion loss in 2024 to a profit after tax of ₦50.9 billion — a full-cycle earnings recovery underpinned by operating profit flipping from a loss of ₦91 billion to a gain of ₦82.9 billion in a single year, confirming the turnaround is structural rather than a function of one-off accounting adjustments.
  • International Breweries posted a net profit margin of 12.2% in 2025, ahead of rival Nigerian Breweries' 8.1%, with gross profit margin expanding to 34.1% in Q3 2025 from 26.8% in the same period a year earlier — driven by better price realisation, improved cost control, and recovering consumer spending — confirming that the leaner cost structure built during the loss years is now generating superior operating leverage across the group.
  • The company carries a net cash position of ₦54.5 billion, with ₦87.9 billion in cash against only ₦33.5 billion in debt, giving a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.07 — an exceptionally clean balance sheet for a capital-intensive brewer, providing meaningful headroom to fund the ₦86 billion in property, plant and equipment acquired in the nine-month period to September 2025 without recourse to dilutive equity issuance or expensive leverage.

⚠️ Risks

  • No dividend was declared for the 2025 financial year, and retained losses stood at ₦184.1 billion as of September 2025 — having only narrowed from ₦242 billion at year-end 2024 — meaning the balance sheet still carries a substantial accumulated deficit that must be fully extinguished before any income distribution to ordinary shareholders becomes legally permissible, creating an uncertain and potentially multi-year wait for yield-seeking investors.
  • The company reported a realised net foreign exchange loss of ₦9.6 billion in Q3 2025 alone, and with raw materials, energy inputs, and capital equipment substantially import-dependent, naira volatility remains a structural earnings threat — maintaining cost discipline amid persistent inflation and FX volatility will be key to sustaining the margin recovery, and any renewed depreciation pressure could quickly reverse the gross profit gains achieved across 2025.
  • Nigerian Breweries has fully integrated Distell Nigeria, expanding its portfolio into wines, spirits, and ready-to-drink beverages, intensifying competition across categories in what is evolving into a total beverage landscape — while INTBREW's brand portfolio remains more narrowly concentrated in beer and malt. The stock's weekly volatility is higher than 75% of Nigerian-listed equities, suggesting the market is still pricing meaningful execution and competitive risk into the shares despite the operational recovery.