FIDELITYBK — Wave 4 Correction Deepens Into Key Support Zone Ahead of Wave 5 Target Near 28

Fidelity Bank Plc remains one of Nigeria’s mid-tier lenders with a strengthening franchise, benefiting from sustained high interest rates that continue to widen net interest margins across the Nigerian banking sector. The bank has demonstrated consistent loan book expansion and deposit growth, supported by its retail and SME focus, which provides a relatively diversified revenue base compared to larger peers. Nigeria’s macroeconomic backdrop, while still challenged by elevated inflation and naira volatility, has begun showing incremental stability following CBN’s tightening cycle, a condition that historically supports banking sector earnings quality. Fidelity’s recapitalisation drive — in line with the CBN’s directive for Nigerian banks to meet new minimum capital thresholds by 2026 — has attracted investor attention and could serve as a near-term re-rating catalyst. Recent earnings releases have reflected improved interest income, though operating cost pressures and credit risk from FX-exposed borrowers remain watchpoints. Valuation remains attractive relative to book value and regional peers, and the stock’s multi-year uptrend reinforces underlying institutional demand. Any successful capital raise or rights issue completion would further solidify the bullish structural thesis heading into the second half of 2026.

Chart Update — 4H and 1 Day

In our last update on June 12, the alternate count flagged a wave 2 low forming near 19–20 with a projected rally toward 28-plus under the primary bullish scenario. The current 4-hour chart now presents a cleaner corrective structure, with price carving out what appears to be wave 4 within a Channel Down, declining in an orderly falling parallel channel after the wave 3 peak near 25.50. The internal sub-waves show a completed (5)-wave advance into wave 3, followed by a corrective ABC decline with wave (c) potentially targeting the 38.2% retracement at 18.1, the 50% level at 15.9, or the deeper 61.8% confluence near 13.7–14.0. The daily chart reinforces this view, with price pressing into descending trendline resistance and the highlighted support box between approximately 14 and 18.3 defining the acceptable zone for wave 4 to complete. A reclaim above the upper channel boundary on the 4-hour timeframe would be the first signal that wave 4 is exhausted and wave 5 — targeting the iii=686×1 projection near 28.8 — is underway.

FIDELITYBK — Wave 4 Correction Deepens Into Key Support Zone Ahead of Wave 5 Target Near 28