05/04/2026 6:29EST (Last Price 1.15078):

The rally from 1.0178 can be seen as a complete five-wave impulse, marked 1-2-3-4-5 in wave (1), where two lower degrees of the trend are visible within wave 3, and wave 4 is a triangle, labeled (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e). If this count is correct, the recent bearish reversal marks the end of wave 5 of (1) and the beginning of wave (2). We can expect more weakness to 1.1200 and possibly even 1.1000, before the bulls can return in wave (3). Not in a straight line, though, since wave B is capable of reaching 1.1800 before the bears show up in wave C. In the very short term, it looks like wave 5 of A can cause a dip below 1.1400, before wave B can begin.