FIDELITYBK — Retail Lending Momentum Builds as Wave 5 Rally Targets Fresh Highs Above 26

Fidelity Bank Plc continues to benefit from Nigeria’s structurally elevated interest rate environment, with the CBN’s tight monetary stance sustaining wide net interest margins across the retail and SME lending segments that form the core of Fidelity’s loan book. The bank’s H1 2026 earnings trajectory has been supported by robust fee income growth, improved digital banking penetration, and disciplined cost-of-funds management despite persistent inflationary pressure on operating expenses. Fidelity has aggressively expanded its retail deposit base over the past 18 months, a strategy that is now paying dividends in the form of cheaper funding and reduced reliance on wholesale borrowing. Naira-denominated asset repricing following the 2023–2024 FX unification has materially boosted the bank’s foreign currency earnings when translated back into local currency, adding a tailwind that many mid-tier Nigerian banks have capitalised on. Valuation remains undemanding relative to tier-one peers on a price-to-book basis, and the bank’s improving capital adequacy ratios position it well ahead of the CBN’s recapitalisation deadline. With consumer credit demand recovering and SME loan disbursements accelerating into H2 2026, Fidelity’s earnings visibility is arguably the strongest it has been in three years, making the current price level an interesting entry point for patient investors aligned with Nigeria’s banking sector re-rating story.

Chart Update — 4H

The intraday 8-hour chart shows a well-structured Elliott Wave sequence in which an extended five-wave impulse carried price from lows near 12 up through the Wave 3 peak at approximately 25, followed by a corrective Wave 4 flat that has now completed its c-leg at the c=100%×a target around 18.1. Price is currently consolidating at the Wave 4 low, which aligns with a prior fourth-wave of lesser degree and the lower boundary of the rising channel, providing a high-probability launchpad for Wave 5. The green arrow projection targets a move back above 26, consistent with typical Wave 5 extensions in this sector. A confirmed bid above the 19.50–20.00 zone on the 8-hour timeframe would signal that Wave 4 has bottomed and the next impulsive leg is underway.