CILEASING — Leasing Sector Fundamentals Stabilise; Wave 2 Correction Nearing Completion

C & I Leasing Plc remains one of Nigeria’s most established asset leasing and outsourcing companies, with a diversified revenue base spanning marine, auto, and manpower outsourcing services. The business has faced persistent pressure from Nigeria’s elevated interest rate environment, which has raised the cost of financing its asset-heavy balance sheet and compressed net margins over recent periods. However, structural demand for fleet and equipment leasing across the oil and gas, FMCG, and construction sectors continues to provide a stable revenue pipeline. The naira’s partial stabilisation following CBN interventions has eased some foreign-currency-denominated liability stress, particularly relevant given CILEASING’s exposure to USD-priced assets. On the earnings front, the company has been working to restructure debt obligations and rationalise its fleet composition, which should improve asset utilisation rates going forward. Valuation remains undemanding relative to book value, and any improvement in Nigeria’s credit cycle or a rate easing pivot from the CBN would act as a meaningful re-rating catalyst. The broader Nigerian leasing sector is also expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure spending and increasing corporate outsourcing of non-core logistics functions. With the stock trading near multi-year lows around ₦5.80, long-term risk-reward begins to look increasingly asymmetric for patient investors.

Chart Update — 4H

The daily chart for CILEASING reflects a prolonged corrective structure from the Wave (1) peak at ₦9.50, with price completing a W-X-Y double zigzag formation. The X wave retraced to ₦8.79 before rolling over into the Y leg, which is now carving out a five-wave impulse decline labelled (i) through (v). Waves (i), (ii), (iii), and (iv) appear complete, with the converging channel suggesting Wave (v) of C of Y — labelled as Wave (2) — is the final leg lower before a meaningful reversal. The structure projects a completion zone toward the ₦3.50–₦4.00 area, which aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel. A confirmed reversal from that zone would signal the start of Wave (3) to the upside.